“As Ohio goes, so goes the Nation.” That was a saying not so long ago when Ohio was a bellwether and battleground state during presidential elections.
The state has been reliably red since 2016, and went for Donald Trump this year by over 11 points.
Lee Hannah, a professor of political science at Wright State University, spoke to WYSO about Ohio went from a swing state to a red state.
This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Lee Hannah: I believe what has happened is that the coalitions of both parties have changed in such a way to where there just happened to be more Republicans in Ohio now than there were back in 2012. And I think the main thing is the way that Trump has really reshaped the Republican Party: how they talk about issues, the issues they champion, and the types of candidates that they run compared to where the National Democratic Party is.
And it's a similar story for states like Iowa and even states that were once pretty solidly blue, like Pennsylvania and Michigan, just as demographic change intersects with the strategies of parties. This is a state that's just become more Republican.
Mike Frazier: So you think it's a combination of the appeal of Republican candidates and what they say that they offer to voters, and a change in demographics in Ohio?
Hannah: Yes. So I think that — whether you agree with this or not — the Republican Party has been able to make significant inroads with, broadly speaking, working class, particularly with white voters. And if you look in especially places like southeast Ohio, which tend to be very much working class, historic influence of unions in these areas - those are places that have really moved in droves towards the Republican Party. Sometimes it's cultural issues, sometimes it's racial issues or even class issues. But that is where the party has made great inroads.
And while a state like Georgia used to look more like Ohio demographically, but has really changed as more college educated people have moved to the state, Ohio is one where we both are losing some of our college educated voters who are migrating out of the state, but then also those that are not leaving are more likely to be more of the demographic profile of President Trump's base.
"And there are a myriad of explanations, everything from charitable interpretations that he tells it like it is and he understands workers and working Americans, to the less charitable interpretations that he's tapping into racial resentment and tapping into misogyny and fears about the changing demographics of the country at large."
Frazier: So you think a lot of this, too, also contributed to Bernie Moreno taking Sherrod Brown’s senate seat?
Hannah: Yes, I think in that case. What we're seeing is the national brand of the Republican Party, combined with the coattails of Donald Trump, has really allowed a number of candidates that don't necessarily have a major name themselves or don't even have a career in politics, they've been able to run in these races and succeed. And I think it's probably a mix of an appetite for outsiders in some ways. But then also, it's just the power of the Republican brand right now in this state as well.
Frazier: So do you think all of this revolves around Donald Trump and his charisma and his populism that he's offering people?
Hannah: I think that is the million dollar question for political scientists right now. There are so many elements of political science, and I feel like we're wondering if it's just the Trump Effect, meaning that it will fade away and politics will maybe recede to what we've traditionally known. I think that's yet to be determined. And, it's a very complex appeal in terms of why people are drawn to him. And there are a myriad of explanations, everything from charitable interpretations that he tells it like it is and he understands workers and working Americans, to the less charitable interpretations that he's tapping into racial resentment and tapping into misogyny and fears about the changing demographics of the country at large. So, there's both of those elements that are driving some of his base and some of his voters. But it certainly found fertile ground in the state.
There have been significant changes in the way people vote and the way they identify with parties in Ohio just in the last 12 years, which makes me think that there's still flexibility, that people could change and come back. And much of that depends on who wins these conversations about where the Democratic Party should go in particular, and then also what comes of the second Trump administration. Is it popular? Does it resonate with people in Ohio? Or does he overplay his hand or not deliver in a way to where there will be some buyer's remorse come 2026, 2028, and we may see Ohio back in the mix as more of a swing state.
