Ohio underwent a mid-cycle redistricting last year that reshaped several of the state’s congressional districts.
While several states used their mid-cycle redistricting to draw stronger lines for Republicans across their states, David Cohen, a professor of political science at the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron, said Ohio took a much more balanced approach.
He said the GOP didn’t redraw districts as Republican as he thought they would.
"I don't think it was nearly as controversial," Cohen said. "I expected there to be a dramatic shift, like we have seen throughout the country in other states, but it just didn't materialize in Ohio."
And Ohio's 13th Congressional District, which includes Akron and Summit County and portions of Stark and Portage counties, ended up more favorable toward Democrats.
“What a lot of political observers missed, I think, is the power of somebody like Congresswoman Emilia Sykes who clearly weighed in on this and not only prevented her district from being carved up, but actually ended up with a much more Democrat friendly district," Cohen said.
After the redistricting, Sykes' opponent Kevin Coughlin withdrew from the primary race, saying he couldn't "see a path to victory." Coughlin ran against Sykes in 2024, getting 49% of the vote. Sykes' Republican opponent in 2026 is Carey Coleman.
Cohen also said he expects even Republicans in what would normally be safe districts to face challenges, due to a lack of enthusiasm from voters, and that frustration over gas prices and the economy could put even heavily Republican leaning districts into play this year.
“I think if there’s enough anger out there, a lot of seats in Ohio that are normally safe are gonna absolutely be in play on election night," Cohen said.
He said how close the contests end up being in solidly Republican districts like 14th in Northeast Ohio, represented by Rep. Dave Joyce, and the 15th in Central Ohio, represented by Rep. Mike Carey, could be a sign of whether Democrats will see a “blue tidal wave” in this year’s elections.
"We'll see what happens on election day, but it's very possible that not only will the Democrats keep their seats," Cohen said. "But it's possible that you may see a few Republicans in fairly close Republican-leaning districts end up losing their seat."
This reporting is part of Ideastream's Listen, Engage, Vote initiative. This summer, our staff went to libraries across Northeast Ohio to hear what people cared about ahead of the midterms. We're using those conversations with voters to help inform our election coverage.
