Cold air moving over Lake Erie is expected to bring more lake effect rain to parts of Northeast Ohio this Friday, according to the National Weather Service.
Parts of northeast Ohio have been experiencing rain for the past day and a half, said meteorologist Zach Sefcovic.
“We are expecting those to continue through tonight and into the first part of Friday as we have some colder air over Lake Erie, which is in the lower sixties over the central basin of the lake, which is warm for this time of year,” Sefcovic said.
Lake effect precipitation occurs when colder air moves over warmer bodies of water, said NWS meteorologist Alex Kennedy. It can cause rainy or snowy conditions based on how cold it gets in the area.
“Since the temperatures are above freezing [and]we're in the upper forties, low fifties,” Kennedy said, “The air mass above that is a little colder, but it's still above freezing. So as that moves over the warm lake, it'll condensate and then that'll form the lake effect rain bands and move across it.”
A number of conditions factor into who gets hit by lake effect weather, Sefcovic said.
"We're also interested in winds, and so if we have favorable wind direction over the lake, generally west to northerly across the region, that can influence the rain or snow to impact areas of northeast Ohio,” Sefcovic said. “And so when we have favorable cold air mass, favorable moisture and favorable winds, that's how you can get lake effect to impact the region.”
The rain from this system isn’t expected to stick around too much longer.
“It should be east of Cleveland and pretty much out of northeast Ohio by Saturday,” Sefcovic said.
The current lake effect conditions are typical for the season, and isn’t necessarily an indication of what’s to come this winter. Despite this, Kennedy said, more precipitation is likely for the region this winter.
“Whether that precipitation falls as rain or snow is a little you know, leaves a little bit determined at that point, more when we get closer to those events,” Kennedy said, “but right now it's looking like it's leaning to be a little more above average in precipitation.”
More rain could be coming to northeast Ohio next week, according to forecasts from the NWS. These storms, however, will come in a different direction and are not expected to be generated by lake effect conditions, Sefcovic said.