AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
The U.S. has entered the war between Israel and Iran, bombing three Iranian sites said to be critical to the country's nuclear program. That was after midnight, local time. Today, the Iranian foreign minister said Iran, quote, "reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interests and people." He also said the U.S. strikes were outrageous and will have everlasting consequences. We're joined now by Arash Azizi, who's an expert on Iran's Revolutionary Guard and is an incoming lecturer at Yale University. Welcome to the program.
ARASH AZIZI: Thank you. Thanks for having me.
RASCOE: So let's start with that statement from the foreign minister. What might all options mean? I mean, Iran is up against two nuclear powers, right?
AZIZI: That's right. Iran does have - you know, does have a lot of options, in a way. It could attack the U.S. forces in the region, in Iraq and in the Gulf countries. It could try to close the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, where a lot of the world's oil passes. It could threaten U.S. ships sort of in the area. Already, some Iranian hard-liners are calling for attacks in different places. It would theoretically attack U.S. bases in Turkey.
But all of these options will really complicate it for Iran. Iran, for example, have had good relations with Turkey for decades. It's not going to ruin that by attacking Turkish territory. And for the Gulf countries, too, Iran has had really good relationship with them for the last few years. And the Gulf countries have mostly - Saudi Arabia and others - have come and condemned the Iranian attacks. One option, of course, could have been using Iran's - sort of these militias that are supported by Iran. And that could come into the game, and they could sort of attack U.S. interests, Western interests in the region. But these militias have been really weakened.
RASCOE: Those militias have been limited by all the other fighting in the Middle East, right?
AZIZI: Exactly. They've been really weakened. Lebanon's Hezbollah is a shadow of its former self, and effectively, it has said it's going to sit this one out. The Iraqi militias really don't want to be seen as getting their country into the war. And, you know, this is Middle East. You know, frankly, a lot of people, I think, have sympathy for Iranians that are - and the Iranian people that are going through this war. But at the same time, you know, if you look at, you know, social media or WhatsApp channels between families, a lot of people, you know, they're very clear that this is not their fight.
RASCOE: Well, this strike came shortly after President Trump said he was holding off on his decision so that diplomacy would have a chance. Do you think Iranian officials believe that they had time for negotiations?
AZIZI: Well, I mean, this is the second time that Donald Trump does what is effectively sort of a deception, of course. I mean, the Israeli attacks also happened just when, you know, talks with Iran and United States were scheduled two days later - you know, two days after what became the first Israeli attacks. So there's obviously going to be a problem of Iranians trusting the United States, but at the same time, they have few options.
I mean, the big grand option here is, you know, do they want to start a protracted war with the United States and Israel that will go on for long and that will have devastating consequences for Iran, or do they want to really seek some fundamental way out? Not negotiate a little here, a little there, you know, do a little gesture - but to say, look, we're here for something big. And, frankly, you know, Donald Trump said unconditional surrender. It is going to look like some sort of a surrender at some point.
RASCOE: From Iran, you think it will look like a surrender?
AZIZI: I mean, it has to, in some point. And - but, you know, the - from - you know, I speak as an Iranian. The picture, I think (ph)...
RASCOE: But - can I - not to cut you off, but can I ask you - the U.S. bombed Iraq in 2003, accusing it of having weapons of mass destruction. That, of course, turned out not to be the case. What lessons do you think Iran took from that time?
AZIZI: I think, you know, if Iran, looking at that time, you know, U.S. was - U.S. didn't just bomb Iraq but invaded Iraq and really sort of it ended up regretting it.
RASCOE: Yeah.
AZIZI: Everybody across the spectrum - of course, famously, including Donald Trump - really regretted that. The lessons Iran learned from that is that it could - that, you know, the attacks could happen but that the focus of the superpowers will be gone, and the forces in the Middle East will remain. And they can drag U.S. and others into sort of a quagmire and, you know, win the game in the longer term. I mean, that's one conclusion they can have, but it will have devastating consequences for Iran as it did for Iraq. So I believe some sort of attempt for peace would make a lot more sense.
RASCOE: That's Iran scholar Arash Azizi. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
AZIZI: Of course. Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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