President Trump is coming to Vandalia near Dayton Saturday for a rally for U.S. Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH). Husted is trying to fend off a challenge by Democrat Sherrod Brown, a longtime former U.S. senator who was ousted in 2024 by Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH). Most polling shows Brown and Husted locked in a tight race, and there are questions about the impact Trump’s visit might have on Husted.
Many Ohioans are facing the reality of higher gas and grocery prices, and that's a key issue, said Ohio Wesleyan University Politics and Government Associate Professor Brianna Mack.
“I’m not convinced that an appearance of Trump would be enough to shake people away from the reality of their wallets and their everyday lives," Mack said in an interview.
Mack, the co-director for the Arneson Institute for Practical Politics and Public Affairs, said this appearance by Trump could prove beneficial to Brown if he ties Husted to some of the president’s unpopular policies.
Ohio State University Professor Emeritus Paul Beck said Trump’s appearance might help with Republicans' ground game because it could provide excitement for Husted among volunteers and Republican voters who are still behind Trump. But he said it could also create a dilemma for Husted.
“You want to be there when your party’s president comes to town or at least comes to your state. On the other hand, I think Husted doesn’t want to be too close to Trump or at least not right now," Beck said in an interview.
Trump has won Ohio three times, by eight points in 2016 and 2020 and by 11 points in 2024. Beck and Mack said many independent voters who will sway this election might blame Trump and transfer that blame to Husted, who supported Trump 100% of the time on bills passed since taking office.
Trump’s popularity is in question now that voters are faced with affordability and an unpopular war in Iran, said Marc Caleb Smith, Director for the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University.
“So on one level this seems reasonable in a state that Donald Trump has done extremely well in when he has run for the presidency," Smith said in an interview. "But I think you can see that he is weaker now than he has been. I think his coalition is fragmenting now, so I think this is a real risk.”
Both Husted and Brown have held political offices for decades, and both have won statewide elections and would be formidable. And while there's not been much reliable polling in Ohio, some surveys have indicated more voters are unfamiliar with Husted compared to Brown. Smith said there are times when the political strategy might be to give up on independent voters who may be swinging away from Trump right now and to energize the base instead.
“If I were in their shoes, I’m not sure I would do it frankly, but they must be looking at data that tells them they need some sort of a boost to change the dynamics of the race," Smith said.
Trump’s visit to Vandalia is on the same day that a memorial service will be held in 24 miles away in Springfield for Pierre Damas Bel, the 20-year-old Haitian student who died by an apparent suicide last month. His family said he feared deportation after losing Haitians lost Temporary Protected Status, forcing them to leave the country or wear ankle monitors while they await decisions on applications to stay.
