JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
As a shaky, temporary ceasefire holds in the Middle East, all eyes are on Pakistan. Beginning tomorrow, that country will host direct talks between the U.S. and Iran. The goal is to bring an end to weeks of fighting that have left thousands dead, sent oil prices soaring and shaken global markets. But amid the chaos, Pakistan has emerged as a key mediator. How did this come to be?
For that, we've called Elizabeth Threlkeld. She is a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center, which is a nonpartisan global affairs think tank. She also worked for the U.S. State Department in Pakistan. Welcome to the program.
ELIZABETH THRELKELD: Pleasure to be here.
SUMMERS: So Pakistan has become this really important go-between for the U.S. and Iran. How did that happen?
THRELKELD: Pakistan borders Iran, and they've had a bit of a testy relationship over time. Pakistan is home to the second-largest population of Shia Muslims in the world. And it also has strong ties with Saudi Arabia. They have a mutual defense agreement. Pakistan has rebooted its relationship with Washington over the course of the last year with the second Trump administration.
And it also has a strong relationship with China. And so over the course of the conflict and, indeed, even before this conflict began, Pakistan had played a quiet and helpful role in trying to pass messages among all of those sides and particularly the U.S. and Iran. And in this case, it really has managed to walk a very difficult tightrope in bringing these talks together and, I think, at a moment when it had a lot on the line in terms of its own liabilities in this conflict, given its exposure.
SUMMERS: What do you think that Pakistan is looking to gain here?
THRELKELD: So I think there are two separate tracks. One is Pakistan is desperate for an end to this conflict. It is hugely exposed to the energy supply shortages, risks of inflation, food insecurity, fertilizer shortages, given the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It neighbors Iran, and so there is some risk of conflict spillover. And it's also hugely dependent on its guest worker population in the Middle East to send back remittances for its economy. And so simply being able to bring an end to the conflict itself will greatly benefit Pakistan if the ceasefire holds.
But I think there's also a geopolitical element here, where Pakistan has not been as much of a player in recent years, especially following the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Biden administration was very reluctant to engage Pakistan, and Pakistan has very deftly managed to rebuild its relations with President Trump in his second term. And in some ways, that's already a victory for Pakistan because it succeeded in playing this role.
SUMMERS: U.S. Vice President JD Vance will be attending the talks in Islamabad. If you could advise him on one thing to keep in mind, what would it be?
THRELKELD: My sense is that this is going to be a relatively longer-term process. And so what is the immediate solution that perhaps might be able to come out of these negotiations that would allow for momentum to be built, for hopefully a reopening of the strait but also to set both sides up for a workable process going forward. And as ever, that is going to be the challenge for the two sides.
SUMMERS: Pakistan's Shia population was outraged by the killing of the Iranian supreme leader at the beginning of the war, and he was a revered figure in the wider Shia community. Do you think there will be heightened security for the U.S. delegation?
THRELKELD: Absolutely. I think top of mind for Pakistan's security forces and its leaders will be ensuring that there is security for these negotiations. And that comes from the threat from groups, for example, like the Pakistani Taliban or ISIS-K that are active. It's also, certainly, you alluded to the protests that we saw following the outbreak of this conflict with U.S. and Israeli strikes. Pakistan worked quickly to bring those protests under control. And since that initial outbreak of protests, we really haven't seen significant domestic unrest within Pakistan. Those were significant protests, and unfortunately, there were fatalities across the country, including outside the U.S. consulate in Karachi. But since then, we really haven't seen any significant domestic protest activity.
SUMMERS: We've been speaking with Elizabeth Threlkeld. She's a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center. Thank you.
THRELKELD: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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