As volunteers work to gather hundreds of thousands of signatures to ask voters to make Ohio the first state to abolish property taxes, concerns about soaring sales taxes are coming to light. But state officials, including Gov. Mike DeWine, have been warning about this for a while, and that’s likely to be a big part of the campaign against the amendment if it makes the fall ballot.
The goal of the Ax Ohio Tax amendment is simple, said Brian Massie of the Committee to Abolish Property Taxes. And he said what happens after property taxes are abolished is up to lawmakers, not his group.
“We're saying, you don't want to be responsible to the people that elected you, and you want us to solve the problems that you have created? I don't think so," Massie said in an interview in August.
But last week, DeWine was direct in sharing his concerns about what that would mean when it comes to making up the property tax money that local governments and services need: a dramatic leap in the sales tax.
“Sales tax would go up to a 17, 18, 19%, 20% sales tax in the state of Ohio on products that you buy," DeWine told reporters. "So it would just be absolutely devastating.”
That’s backed up by a memo the state Office of Budget and Management sent to DeWine last week. OBM estimates that to replace the $24 billion property taxes generate for local governments, the state would have to more than double the sales tax to as much as 18%, significantly higher than any other state, and that it could be broadened to include things not taxed now, such as food and healthcare.
This isn’t the first time DeWine has raised concern about a huge increase in the sales tax if the abolishment effort succeeds. So have others, such as Republican former lawmaker Bill Seitz, who DeWine appointed to his property tax force study group after vetoing several property tax related items in the budget. Seitz had this warning in August.
"You would need a statewide sales tax rate of something approximating 20% to make up for that revenue. And let's not forget, a whole lot of taxing jurisdictions have no power or authority to levy a sales tax. Townships don't, libraries don't, mental health don't, parks do not," Seitz said. "So suggesting that we raise the sales tax when those entities, many of them don't even have authority to do a sales tax is not the smartest thing in the world to me to do."
Several episodes of the podcast produced by Senate Republicans have been devoted to the abolishment issue. Senate President Rob McColley (R-Napoleon), who's also the running mate of Republican candidate for governor Vivek Ramaswamy, offered this caution in a social media post in October.
“The state cannot pick up a tab that big unless people are willing to have their income taxes go up to near 10% and their sales tax go up to about 18%," McColley said in the video.
But the OBM memo also covers that other option: raising income taxes. The rate now is a flat 2.75%, the second lowest among all income tax states. But to cover the $24 billion hole, OBM estimated income taxes would need to quadruple to as much as 15% statewide, and if levied locally the rate could go to 27%.
But state lawmakers turning to higher income taxes to cover the loss of property taxes if the amendment makes the ballot and passes seems highly unlikely.
"I don't really see any appetite to do that after the legislature has spent a quarter of a century reducing income taxes," Seitz said.
Ramaswamy said when he announced his run in February 2025 that he wants to "bring down property taxes in this state immediately, eventually down to zero." He's backed off that and now talks about instituting "the largest rollback of property taxes in the history of Ohio." As for income taxes, Ramaswamy said at his introduction of McColley as his running mate in January: “We are going to make Ohio a zero income tax state where you can keep what you earn.”
If the abolishment amendment makes the ballot, the organized opposition will be big, likely well funded and largely bipartisan, given the impact on schools, counties, cities, townships and other local entities funded by property taxes. But so far, Democrats haven’t spoken much about the amendment effort at all.
Former House minority leader and now candidate for secretary of state Rep. Allison Russo did talk about it after the amendment was approved by the Ballot Board in May, saying she has "huge concerns" about it but she understands the motivation behind it.
"The effort that we see to put this as a ballot amendment in the Constitution clearly demonstrates a frustration by Ohioans on this issue," Russo told reporters. "They have begged for the legislature to act. Democrats have been introducing legislation, bipartisan legislation for the last couple of general assemblies to provide direct relief. It has not been prioritized by the Republican majority. And so I see that reflected when the legislature doesn't respond, the people step up and usually through a ballot initiative."
Democratic candidate for governor Dr. Amy Acton has said the idea of abolishing property taxes is "reckless."
“We need real tax reform. Yes, we need immediate relief on property taxes. And we actually need a comprehensive look at our entire code," Acton told supporters at an event announcing several union endorsements in December.
The Committee to Abolish Property Taxes isn’t sharing how many signatures they’ve gathered, but they need 413,487 valid signatures from half of Ohio's 88 counties by July 1 to qualify for the November ballot. That’s a monumental task for an all-volunteer group. But if they get them, that’s when the real campaigns for and against it would begin.
