Here is our first Grammy Award preview. Below, I’ll analyze the four major Grammy categories: Record Of The Year, Album The Year, Song Of The Year, and Best New Artist. I’ll give you my opinions on the nominations for each category, and who I think should/and will win in each category.
Let’s rock.
1. Record Of The Year
Don't Shut Me Down/ABBA : This is a legacy nomination. Like when the Oscars nominate an older actor for a good performance to make up for the times when that actor’s great performances weren’t nominated (or they didn’t win). ABBA is a legendary group with massive classic songs. Don’t Shut Me Down will not be one of them. It was a cute diddy that exploded in Europe, but made a peep in the States. I don’t see this cut winning the award.
Easy On Me/Adele: A hell of a contender. This smash by one of the 21st century’s biggest stars led radio spins, streaming units, and download sales simultaneously, and spent ten (non-consecutive) weeks at number one on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart. And, everybody loved this song. If it won this category, I wouldn’t be shocked.
BREAK MY SOUL/Beyoncé: This song got a lot of love in the streets (and nightclubs, cookouts, spinning classes, etc.), so it’s an interesting choice by NARAS (the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences) . It was another massive hit for Queen Béy, so that alone puts it in consideration for Record Of The Year. Still, I don’t see it winning. Not against the other more pop friendly choices.
Good Morning Gorgeous/Mary J. Blige: Pretty much a legacy nom. This song did well on Black adult contemporary radio stations, but it wasn’t a smash, and it’s far from being one of Mary’s biggest hits. I don’t see this song winning this category.
You And Me On The Rock/Brandi Carlile Featuring Lucius: A beautiful song from a serious talent. That said, I see a disconnect here. This is the song that NARAS loves, but the general public may not. What’s funny is…that could work in Carlile’s favor. Sometimes, songs that are critical darlings (the ones that music critics write think-pieces about) end up swaying Grammy voters. This is a dark horse pick that may win a gramophone for Carlile.
Woman/Doja Cat: The “Eh” pick. A good song, not a great one. It did reach number seven on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart. But, it wasn’t a seismic single like the others on this list. A curious choice by NARAS.
Bad Habit/Steve Lacy: Lacy’s breakthrough mega-hit was a kick-in-the-door moment in 2022. It was a seismic smash, and a much larger portion of the public got to know about this extremely talented young man. Bad Habit was the kind of super-hit that we rarely see these days. The song went to number one on the Billboard Hot Rock & Alternative Songs, the Hot R&B Songs, and Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs charts simultaneously. It topped the Hot 100 chart in October. I could easily see Bad Habit winning this category. It would go over really well with Gen Z viewers and music fans, and that’s the audience the Grammy’s should really be courting anyway.
The Heart Part 5/Kendrick Lamar: An amazing song that was accompanied by one of the best music videos of all time. A great choice, but it’s such a heavy song. If it wins, it would kick off a bunch of discussions on and offline. Alas, I don’t see it winning this prize. It’s a stunner of a single…yet possibly too serious for a Grammy trophy (in this category).
About Damn Time/Lizzo: Another serious contender. The song was a big hit and the first single from Lizzo’s wonderful Special album. It topped the Billboard Hot 100 chart for two weeks, and was the feel good song of Spring 2022. If About Damn Time won Record Of The Year, I could totally see it. Not to mention that Lizzo is a commercial and critical darling.
As It Was/Harry Styles: My pick for the winner. As It Was was an Avatar sized hit. It pulverized everything in its path, and for a time, was the biggest song in the world. Upon its release (immediately after its release), it broke Spotify and Apple Music streaming records. It vaulted to the top position of Billboard’s Hot 100 chart for 15 weeks. That’s Boyz II Men/Whitney Houston territory. This mastodon of a smash, plus the adoration of Styles by pretty much the entire globe makes him a near shoo-in to win this award. I’m calling this contest for Styles.
2. Album Of The Year
Voyage/ABBA: Nah. It’s a cool story, and a treat for Baby Boomers. But this album and group (in 2023) doesn’t have enough relevance to win this category.
30/Adele: This album has a real shot at victory. Commercially loved and critically adored. And Adele, like Harry Styles, has massive global appeal.
Un Verano Sin Ti/Bad Bunny: In a way, Bunny is Harry Styles's archenemy. A global superstar who’s even bigger than Styles. Bad Bunny had 18.5 billion streams of his music last year. That’s…supernatural. Bunny isn’t a wholly American household name (not counting Latino households). But the sheer number of his fans could sway Grammy voters.
RENAISSANCE/Beyoncé: I could see this album winning. It wasn’t Beyoncé’s biggest selling, nor her most popular. But, there just wasn’t an album that sounded anything like it in 2022…good ol’ Pop Soul. If RENAISSANCE wins, it would be a great moment for television, pop music, and American culture.
Good Morning Gorgeous (Deluxe)/Mary J. Blige: This album didn’t set the streets on fire. Die hard Mary fans that I know personally barely mentioned this album. It seems like it was nominated out of cultural courtesy.
In These Silent Days/Brandi Carlile: The kind of critical smash that Grammy voters love. It could win, especially if voters want to remind the public that prestige still matters to the Grammys.
Music Of The Spheres/Coldplay: Seems like an obligatory nod to Rock music. This album did waaaay better in the UK than here.
Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers/Kendrick Lamar: Serious enough to win, actually. This was the most dense (in terms of content, references, and subject matter) and serious major label Hip-Hop release in years. This was more than an LP…it was an experience. This wouldn’t be a shocking victory.
Special/Lizzo: Personally, this was one of my favorite albums of the year. Lizzo made a heartfelt love letter to the everywoman. It should’ve gone supernova sales-wise, but it got caught in the jetstreams of Beyoncé and Taylor Swift’s 2022 albums. If this wins, it would be an almost “Rocky”-esque Grammy moment.
Harry's House/Harry Styles: Simply, since Taylor Swift isn’t nominated for this award, Harry’s House should win Album Of The Year. It generated astronomical sales and near unanimous critical love. And Styles is still the object of cross-sexual desire and internet fan fiction. I see him walking away with this statue, too.
3. Song Of The Year
abcdefu/(GAYLE): A clever and well written bop. I don’t see it winning, but it speaks to the cleverness of the song that it was nominated.
About Damn Time/(Lizzo): Could win. But the competition is tough.
All Too Well(10 Minute Version) (The Short Film)/(Taylor Swift): Anytime Swift (along with her producers) gets nominated for anything, she’s got a shot at winning. This is the wildcard of the nominees.
As It Was/(Harry Styles): Styles could walk away with this one. But, his challenger is a fellow Brit who won’t go out without a fight.
Bad Habit/(Steve Lacy): The Gen Z kid again. If the Grammys are serious about reaching younger viewers, and staying relevant, a win for Lacy could do wonders for the event’s public perception.
BREAK MY SOUL/(Beyoncé): Dope song, but I don’t know if it’s ‘strong’ enough to win this category.
Easy On Me/(Adele): The other Brit I was referring to. If Adele can’t win Record Of The Year, she should be heavily considered to win Song Of The Year. She’s arguably the most famous Pop vocalist in the world (and a great songwriter). If she’s going to win an award, it could and…kinda should be this one.
GOD DID/(DJ Khaled Featuring Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend & Fridayy): Fascinating choice. I’m betting it’s because of that mind bending, fist pumping, tear shedding, jaw dropping, run through a wall guest verse by Jay-Z. This song won’t win, but it’s a cool tip of the hat towards Hip-hop…and the Best Rapper of All Time.
The Heart Part 5/(Kendrick Lamar): So well written (and performed) I can see this winning a statue for Kung-Fu Kenny.
Just Like That/(Bonnie Raitt): This song just wasn’t popular enough. But, Raitt is a Grammy darling, so it has a faint chance at victory.
4. Best New Artist
Anitta
Omar Apollo
DOMi & JD Beck
Muni Long
Samara Joy
Latto
Måneskin
Tobe Nwigwe
Molly Tuttle
Wet Leg
Easy choice: Latto. The Columbus, Ohio rapper’s hit single Big Energy reached the number three spot on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart in 2022. The other artists in this category have real promise, but a smash is a smash, and Latto dropped just that.
