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Ohio U.S. Senate race may help turn state red, says local analyst

Political Science professor Chris Devine believes more Ohioans are voting Republican because they fear 'others' are threatening their cultural identity. Devine is associate professor of American Politics and Elections at the University of Dayton.
Larry Burgess
/
University of Dayton
Political Science professor Chris Devine believes more Ohioans are voting Republican because they fear 'others' are threatening their cultural identity. Devine is associate professor of American Politics and Elections at the University of Dayton.

Across the country and here in Ohio, candidates are making their final push to win voter support. WYSO's Kathryn Mobley spoke with University of Dayton Associate Professor Chris Devine. He specializes in American politics and elections. Devine says he's keeping a close eye on Ohio's U.S. Senate race between Democrat Tim Ryan and Republican J.D. Vance.

Chris Devine: I think the Ohio Senate race, this is really a test case in some ways for how much of a Republican state Ohio is now. J.D. Vance, he really doubled down on being the Donald Trump endorsed candidate, of course, inviting Donald Trump to campaign for him in the Dayton area the day before the election. He's running against in Tim Ryan, who in order to win, has calculated that he really needs to distance himself from the Democratic Party. He's been critical in some ways of Joe Biden, for instance, saying that he should not run again for president, breaking on policy in some ways, advertising his support for some of Donald Trump's policies, including on trade.

So, I think it's really interesting among all these races to see how that one will shape up, because it includes all voters in the state of Ohio, not a certain congressional district, no gerrymandering involved in this race. And it pits a really Donald Trump populist Republican against someone who is at least portraying himself as a moderate Democrat.

Kathryn Mobley: What about in the rural communities?

Devine: You don't have to go back that far in Ohio history. In the last 20 years or so, I think 2008 at the presidential level and other levels, to see that Democrats were very competitive, if not at some point even dominant, in Appalachian Ohio. That's been a dramatic change. And I suspect that we're only going to see a continuation towards rural areas becoming more Republican.

Mobley: Why do you think this shift is happening in Ohio?

Devine: There's this feeling of being left behind by not just the economy, but evidence would suggest more so that it really is the cultural issues, social issues, whatever you may want to call them, that have driven a lot of this change. What predicts someone moving from being, let's say, an Obama to a Trump voter is not really fear of losing their job or change in their income level. And what better explains it?

It is more so those appeals to cultural identity fear that other people are moving into our state or our country, and that I may not have that position of power or status that I used to have. And so they might look at going towards radical options and they might feel like the old system wasn't working for me and in fact, may have even been designed for someone else. And so I will try something very different, even if that caused consternation among others, because my other choices didn't work out, I got to try something else.

Mobley: Chris Devine, thank you so much for talking with us. Chris Devine is associate professor of political science at the University of Dayton. Thank you, Chris.

Devine: My pleasure. Thank you, Kathryn.

Kathryn Mobley is an award-winning broadcast journalist, crafting stories for more than 30 years. She’s reported and produced for TV, NPR affiliate and for the web. Mobley also contributes to several area community groups. She sings tenor with World House Choir (Yellow Springs), she’s a board member of the Beavercreek Community Theatre and volunteers with two community television operations, DATV (Dayton) and MVCC (Centerville).

Email: kmobley@wyso.org
Cell phone: (937) 952-9924